UK House Price Index Summary - September 2024

Welcome to our September 2024 House Price Index blog. Here, we break down the latest data on the UK housing market.

From national house prices and changes, insights into different UK regions, to the latest on mortgage approvals and market sentiments, we’ll cover it all.

We’ll also review the findings from Halifax, Rightmove, and Zoopla to give you a rounded view of where the market stands today.

Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or just keeping an eye on the market, this blog will provide you with the essential insights you need.

Table of Contents

• Halifax House Price Index Summary

• Rightmove House Price Index Summary

• Zoopla House Price Index Summary

UK House Price Index Summary - September 2024

Halifax House Price Index Summary

The Halifax House Price Index report for September 2024 provides an overview of UK house prices, analyzing recent market performance and trends across different regions. This summary captures key data on property values, regional growth, and market dynamics.

National House Price Indices

• Average House Price: £293,399

• Monthly Change: +0.3%

• Quarterly Change: +1.2%

• Annual Change: +4.7%

House prices in the UK continued their upward trend in September, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. The average property value of £293,399 is the highest since June 2022, reflecting a gradual recovery of market losses from the previous year. This growth, both month-on-month and year-on-year, underscores the resilience of the housing market despite economic uncertainties.

Regional Market Analysis

• Northern Ireland: This region leads the UK in house price growth, with a +9.7% annual increase, bringing the average price to £203,593.

• North West: The strongest performing region in England, recording a +5.1% rise, with average property values reaching £234,355.

• Wales: House prices rose +4.4% over the year, with properties now costing £224,119.

• Scotland: Property values showed more modest growth, increasing by +2.1%, with an average house price of £205,718.

• London: The capital remains the most expensive region, with average house prices at £539,238, up by +2.6% over the past year. Despite this increase, prices remain below the peak levels seen in August 2022.

Mortgage Market Insights

• Mortgage Approvals: The number of mortgages approved for house purchases increased by +3.8% in August, with 64,858 approvals. This represents a +43.4% increase compared to the same period in 2023, indicating improved affordability and growing buyer confidence​

• Property Transactions: Seasonally adjusted residential transactions in August 2024 totaled 90,210, down slightly by -0.4% compared to July. However, transactions were still +5.4% higher than in August 2023

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Rightmove House Price Index Summary

The Rightmove House Price Index for September 2024 offers an insightful look into the UK housing market's performance. It provides key data on national asking prices, regional dynamics, and market activity, reflecting a continued recovery from the more subdued conditions of 2023.

National House Price Indices

• Average Asking Price: £370,759

• Monthly Change: +0.8% (+£2,974)

• Annual Change: +1.2%

September's +0.8% increase in average asking prices is double the typical seasonal growth for the month, driven by a stronger market rebound than usual. This surge in price reflects the steady recovery in activity, supported by better mortgage affordability and an increased supply of homes for sale.

Regional Market Analysis

• Sales Agreed: Sales agreed between buyers and sellers are up by +27% compared to the same time last year.

• Buyer Demand: The number of potential buyers contacting estate agents is up +15% year-on-year.

• Stock Levels: The average number of available homes for sale per estate agency branch is at its highest since 2014, with an average of 33 homes listed.

• In terms of pricing, buyer behavior continues to be price-sensitive. While well-priced homes are attracting interest and selling faster, overpriced or poorly presented properties are being overlooked. On average, it still takes 60 days for a property to find a buyer—three days longer than at this point in 2023.

Mortgage Market Insights

• Mortgage Rates: The average 5-year fixed mortgage rate currently stands at 4.67%, lower than the peak of 6.11% seen in July 2023. However, this is still significantly higher than the average rate of 2.34% seen three years ago, which continues to limit affordability for some buyers.

Rightmove's mortgage tracker highlights how the downward trend in mortgage rates is contributing to improved market sentiment, although many buyers remain cautious, waiting for further reductions in rates before making a move.

Additional Insights

The traditionally active autumn housing market has arrived earlier than usual, spurred by a window of opportunity created by falling mortgage rates and increased housing stock. Despite the improved conditions, the market remains cautious with uncertainties ahead, particularly regarding potential changes in the upcoming Autumn Statement​arket recovery, although promising, still reflects a careful balance between buyer demand, affordability, and pricing strategy, which will likely shape the rest of the year’s performance.

Zoopla House Price Index Summary

The Zoopla House Price Index for September 2024 provides valuable insights into the current dynamics of the UK housing market. This update highlights the national house price trends, regional performance, and factors influencing buyer behavior in the face of ongoing economic challenges.

National House Price Indices

• Average House Price (August 2024): £267,100

• Monthly Change: +0.3% from July 2024

• Annual Change: +0.7% (an increase of £1,970 compared to the previous year)

The UK housing market saw modest price growth in September, with national house prices up by 0.3% from the previous month. The annual growth rate remains low at 0.7%, reflecting a cautious recovery from the declines experienced in late 2023.

Regional Market Analysis

• Northern Ireland: Continues to show strong performance, with house prices increasing by +5.5% annually, outperforming many other regions.

• London: Registered a turnaround, moving from a -1.7% decline a year ago to a modest growth of +0.5%. Despite this, affordability remains a challenge in the capital.

• East Midlands and North East: These regions recorded some of the highest increases in sales activity, with more than 30% growth year-on-year, driven by better affordability and increased stock.

Buyer and Seller Behavior

Buyer demand has risen by +26% compared to the same period in 2023, supported by the lowest mortgage rates in over a year. Mortgage rates for a typical 5-year fixed mortgage now stand at 4.3%, down from 5.5% a year ago, which has encouraged many buyers to return to the market​.

Additionally, there has been a 12% increase in the number of homes listed for sale compared to the same time last year, particularly in coastal and rural areas where changes in tax policy have prompted investors and second-home owners to offload properties​.

Mortgage Market Insights

The availability of more competitive mortgage rates has spurred significant market activity. While affordability remains a key concern for buyers, the easing of mortgage rates has supported +25% growth in sales agreed, with a notable rise in the number of chain-free properties being sold​.

Additional Insights

The market's recovery has been slow but steady, with modest price gains expected to continue. However, buyers remain price-sensitive, as nearly 37% of sales are agreed at more than 5% below the asking price. Sellers are encouraged to set realistic prices to secure quick sales in a competitive market​.

This period of relative stability is forecast to extend into 2025, with lower mortgage rates and improved buyer confidence expected to sustain the market's momentum. Nonetheless, the upcoming Autumn Statement and potential tax changes may influence both buyer behavior and market trends in the months ahead​.

Key Takeaways

• House prices continue to rise across the UK, with Halifax reporting an average price of £293,399 (+4.7% YoY), Rightmove showing £370,759 (+1.2% YoY), and Zoopla reporting £267,100 (+0.7% YoY) as of September 2024.

• Northern Ireland leads the UK with an annual house price increase of +9.7%, followed by the North West (+5.1%). London, despite being the most expensive region, saw a modest annual rise of +0.5%.

• Buyer demand remains robust, with Rightmove reporting a +27% increase in sales agreed compared to 2023, and Zoopla showing a +26% rise in demand, reflecting a more active market as mortgage rates decline.

• Mortgage rates have eased from the peak seen in mid-2023. Rightmove reports an average 5-year fixed rate of 4.67%, while Zoopla highlights a slightly lower rate of 4.3%, which has improved affordability and boosted buyer confidence.

• Buyers remain price-conscious, with Zoopla noting that nearly 37% of sales are agreed at over 5% below the asking price. Sellers are encouraged to price realistically to secure quicker sales.

• The housing market is expected to remain stable with modest price growth through 2025, driven by improved affordability and mortgage conditions. However, potential tax changes in the upcoming Autumn Statement may influence market behavior.

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